Published by Kauders Portfolio Management, Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
Wall Street (the Dow Jones Industrials) turned sharply upwards on Thursday (28th September 2000) and London joined in the fun. Before you are carried away, let's be clear: this is a typical rally in an ongoing bear market.
Bear market rallies, whether they last one day or six months, come from out of the blue. Trading them simply increases costs, mistakes, and overall losses. The less polite term for a bear market rally is "sucker's rally". At the moment, neither the oversold condition of equities, nor the seasonalities, are sufficient to generate a long rally.
The pound sterling is also following a minor bear market rally. Overall, our view is that the pound is still far too high against the US dollar. Interestingly, currency markets seem to have fairly accurately discounted (i.e. anticipated) the result of the Danish referendum on the Euro.
You are welcome to quote or re-use this material, provided you acknowledge the source "www.contraryview.co.uk, published by Kauders Portfolio Management".
Return to home page of contrary view or return to complete index
For information about our advice and services visit our main site or click for contact details
WARNING: The firm can only be responsible for action taken on our advice given personally and specifically to be suitable for each individual. Statements on this site do not, on their own, constitute advice. Please note that UK regulatory requirements prevent us commenting on your existing investments or giving specific advice, unless you first sign one of our portfolio service agreements.
This advertisement has been approved by Kauders Portfolio Management, who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of investment business in the UK. Opinions and statistics are valid at time of publication but may differ later. We leave them on the site so that you can see how useful our point of view has been.
© Kauders Portfolio Management 2000