CONTRARY VIEW

Published by Kauders Portfolio Management, Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority

No. 9 9th October 2000 Signals from the lemmings

Scarcely a week goes by without another announcement of a new "private bank" or "wealth management firm". What a wonderful contrary signal this lemming like rush gives us!

The right time to open your wallet and play with stock markets was the beginning of 1975, when the FT 30 share index (there was no FTSE then) stood below 150 (compared to 3434 last Friday). Back then, you could buy bargains. Today, equity markets are grossly overpriced and the other side of the cycle is only too evident.

The old saw "if you want to make a small fortune, start with a large one" comes to mind. Many young investment advisers have only the last five or ten years as real experience, so they will be the last to say "go away .. before a bear market causes serious losses".

Of course, if all you crave is to restore the personal service local bank branches gave you 20 or 30 years ago, then the new private banks or "wealth management services" will provide it. Just keep out of all equities.

 

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