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Does it matter whether "Gush" or "Bore" wins tonight?
Although there are differences of dogma, we believe that neither candidate has considered the possibility of a recession. A serious recession is overdue. Once Americans stop spending, the US Government's surplus will disappear. Then there will be no choice between tax cuts and debt reduction. Instead, politicians will increase spending to pay for the extra social costs, either by raising taxes or borrowing more.
Politicians only look backwards. Businesses rarely plan for recession, and politicians never do. The reason an American recession is now inevitable lies in the monetary expansion of the last five years:-
The American economy boomed because copious new credit was created. With growth in GDP less than growth in lending, the sensible conclusion is that America's boom was artificial. Growth in GDP ought to have been more than growth in lending, not less.
Events will change the course of the next presidency, regardless of who wins.
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