CONTRARY VIEW

Published by Kauders Portfolio Management, Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority

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No. 49 7th July 2004 "The City now believes ..."

A recurring lesson in investment markets is that news is always too late.  Articles take their tone from what has already happened rather than what is about to transpire so that investment decisions based on news stories ensure the investor is reactive rather than pro-active.

Similarly, as news changes so analysts alter their views leading to comments such as "The City now believes..." as if it were some major new discovery.  Yesterday the Financial Times carried an article saying "Sentiment in global markets seems to have changed again.  A set of weak data has raised concerns that the economic recovery may be fading."

Look out for a series of stories leading to deflation replacing inflation as the key issue!

 

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