CONTRARY VIEW

Published by Kauders Portfolio Management, Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority

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No. 062 12th May 2006 The great sell-off starts here

Are you surprised by the sudden turn in markets? We're not. The only surprise is that it has been so long coming.

We believe it is no longer possible to fix the world economy with more lashings of easy credit. Far from the US dollar being the villain in the piece, it is the willingness of the US to run deficits that has kept the global economy prospering. Those who wish for America to balance its books should think more carefully about just what they are wishing for: less borrowing, less spending, shrinking economies - all this lies ahead, but none of us will like it.

Stock markets will now begin to demonstrate how they anticipate the future by returning to a primary downtrend, also known as a bear market. Government Bond markets will now wrongfoot all the advice that they are inappropriate for investment. In fact, Government Bonds will offer the only capital growth vehicle as the dramatic changes unfold over the next few years.

As for hedge funds, commodities and all the other complicated investment vehicles around, will someone please explain how it is possible for every one to get rich by rubbing two brass farthings together?

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© Kauders Portfolio Management 2006